In Brazil, unlike other Latin American countries, the foreign vote was not decidedly right wing. Lula won by over 3.5% of the vote, well over four million votes, a turnaround of over six million votes with a virtually identical voter turnout. In ancient Rome, generals participating in triumphal parades had a man dyed red standing behind them reminding them they were human. At times, in two round presidential elections like Brazil’s, voters do the same, voting against someone in the first round as a warning, but supporting him or her in the second. Nonetheless, the shock of the first round will probably lead to changes in Lula’s governance in areas involving crime and violence, and with respect to more attention to food basket economics.
Because Lula will not be eligible for reelection in four years but many Bolsonaros will be, and because the Brazilian left lacks a viable successor, at least at present, the future does not look as bleak for the Brazilian right as a Bolsonaro victory would have been for the left. Notwithstanding his impressive comeback victory, governing for Lula will prove extremely difficult given the right’s control over Congress. His victory, however, is a serious defeat for President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu’s aspirations in Latin America and may bode ill for their own parties in the upcoming elections in their own countries.
Had Bolsonaro won, the United States would have quickly entered into long term agreements for natural resources, especially in the Amazon which would have been freed up for development and Israel would have gained another important foothold in Latin America. There would have been significant deregulation and reduction of public spending, except with respect to police and the armed forces. Integration with other Latin American countries would likely have been abandoned, as would Brazil’s leadership role in the BRICS. The Constitution would likely have been significantly amended in a manner making it easier to reshape the Supreme Court and entrench right wing rule, and, given the right’s control of Congress, it still may be.
Interestingly, the orchestrated transportation delays in Lula oriented districts in Northern Brazil were overcome by the two hour voting extensions while the weather delays in the South were apparently not. However, since both sides asked for the extension, neither side can legitimately challenge it.
Pro-Bolsonaro evangelicals may be wondering why God intervened in that manner.
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© Guillermo Calvo Mahé; Manizales, 2026; all rights reserved. Please feel free to share with appropriate attribution. However, photograph copyright belongs to CNN.
Guillermo (“Bill”) Calvo Mahé (a sometime poet and aspiring empirical philosopher) is a writer, political commentator and academic currently residing in the Republic of Colombia (although he has primarily lived in the United States of America of which he is also a citizen). Until 2017 he chaired the political science, government and international relations programs at the Universidad Autónoma de Manizales. Previously, he chaired the social studies and foreign language departments at the Eastern Military Academy in Huntington, New York. He is currently the publisher of the Inannite Review available at Substack.com; an intermittent commentator on radio and television in both Colombia and abroad; and, an occasional contributor to diverse periodicals and publications. He has academic degrees in political science (BA, The Citadel, the Military College of South Carolina), law (JD, St. John’s University, School of Law), international legal studies (LL.M, the Graduate Division of the New York University School of Law) and translation and linguistic studies (GCTS, the University of Florida’s Center for Latin American Studies). However, he is also fascinated by mythology, religion, physics, astronomy and mathematics, especially with matters related to quanta, cosmology and cosmogony. He can be contacted at guillermo.calvo.mahe@gmail.com and much of his writing is available through his blog at https://guillermocalvo.com/.
