Category Archives: Journalism, media

Probabilities on the First Tuesday following the First Monday in November, 2026

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Reliable projections point to a blue wave on the first Tuesday following the first Monday in November, 2026, perhaps a tsunami, but ….

Seriously ….

What are the chances that the current Trump administration will accept electoral defeat in an existential election, existential because if it loses it will have to face a hostile Congress with subpoena power and the power of the purse and, theoretically (albeit not practically) conviction power following impeachment?  What are the chances when it does not abide by any law, international, constitutional, federal, state or local?  After all, the only moral that counts is Donald Trump’s opinion[1].

Obviously, no matter the results next Tuesday, the presidential pardon power will shield the members of Mr. Trump’s administration and his family (or most of them, some may be thrown to the wolves) from federal criminal liability no matter what (as did the Biden administration), but that does not shield them from prosecution, incarceration or fines at the state and local level.  Then again, a compliant and subservient Supreme Court may well find a way to extend the scope of the pardon power or restrict the power of states and localities to work around it.  But “facts” in the hands of a real press can be dangerous things.  Of course, that assumes a “real press” rather than a subservient outlet for propaganda which hides even more than it distorts.  Still it’s a bit harder to muzzle a hostile Congress with its fingers holding tight to the federal purse.  Better to avoid the problem, but how?

Well, until the unstoppable force hit the unmovable wall in Brazil last week, the United States and Israel had conducted numerous successful experiments in electoral manipulation through the use of “bot” controlled social media spewing false information, algorithmic manipulation, control of electoral software and oodles of cash, indeed, manipulation of public transport seemed that it would be a great tool to assure proper results, at least until a pesky judicial system and idiots in the pro United States/Israeli camp screwed up and the elections were extended.  Still, all but one recent election was steered in the “right” direction, regardless of how voters actually voted and the methods designed and perfected by the “deep state”, now controlled by Trump & Company, can be very effective.  How effective in the United States, where it obviously seems they have been used by both branches of the uniparty since at least the 206 election, remains to be seen.  But it seems a pretty good bet that with an utterly ruthless administration in charge of the system, the polls and projections will once again prove to, amazingly, have been completely mistaken. 

So what if that constitutes a defacto coup d’état.

The sick thing is that such a likely defacto coup against the electorate is only possible (some would say likely), because the other branch of the AIPAC owned uniparty (i.e., the Democrats), when it was last in office, created precedents that their purported opponents can now use, not against them, but against us all. So, we really should at least ask ourselves: “Just how stupid have we been and how negligent in our duty as citizens that the foregoing is not only a possibility but a probability?”

As instructed by both branches of the uniparty as well as the unipress, we’ve voted in favor of purported “lesser evils” for so long that all we have is evil, plutocratic evil in a system where the purportedly sacred constitution is less useful than toilet paper (not to denigrate the immense value of toilet paper).  And we, the stupid, naïve, manipulable voters are to blame, not the army of straw people the uniparty shoves in our faces, i.e., the communists and socialists and Muslims and liberals and progressives and conservatives and libertarians and academics and blacks and Hispanics and racists, etc.

On the other hand, what choices have we had, each seemingly worse that the other in an endless cycle: Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama, Trump, Biden, Trump!!!  Of course, there were other candidates but our purportedly free unipress kept them safely hidden while urging us not to “waste our votes”.  “Move on, nothing here to see: Ross Perot, Dennis Kucinich, Ralph Nader, Gary Johnson, Jill Stein, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., Cornel West, etc., who the ‘Hell’ were they?”

And who de we have sitting in the wings, according to the latest “polls (assuming Mr. Trump ever relinquishes the presidency, after all, he and his billionaire friends are avidly paying for research into immortality, of the immoral variant):  Well, amazingly, Kamala Harris (if Hillary does not decide to run again); yuck!!!!; and J.D. Vance, or perhaps Marco Rubio, (yuck!!!).

So …. ¿Now what?

Somewhere an immense flock of happy chickens are coming home to roost, their feckless, errr, I mean fearless leader, cackling, suggesting we just lie back and enjoy it.  After all, civic obligations are pretty much of a drag.  Or, to put it another way, a bit more artfully, as recently departed Patrick Stewart once declaimed in his role as Locutos of Borg (perhaps paraphrasing Elliot Brandt): “Resistance is futile. Your life, as it has been, is over. From this time forward, you will service us.” 

Actually, it’s been that way for a while.

Which is not to discourage the reader (hopefully more than one) from following president Trump’s advice to “vote early and vote often”!
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© Guillermo Calvo Mahé; Manizales, 2026; all rights reserved.  Please feel free to share with appropriate attribution.

Guillermo (“Bill”) Calvo Mahé (a sometime poet and aspiring empirical philosopher) is a writer, political commentator and academic currently residing in the Republic of Colombia (although he has primarily lived in the United States of America of which he is also a citizen). Until 2017 he chaired the political science, government and international relations programs at the Universidad Autónoma de Manizales. Previously, he chaired the social studies and foreign language departments at the Eastern Military Academy in Huntington, New York. He is currently the publisher of the Inannite Review available at Substack.com; an intermittent commentator on radio and television in both Colombia and abroad; and, an occasional contributor to diverse periodicals and publications. He has academic degrees in political science (BA, The Citadel, the Military College of South Carolina), law (JD, St. John’s University, School of Law), international legal studies (LL.M, the Graduate Division of the New York University School of Law) and translation and linguistic studies (GCTS, the University of Florida’s Center for Latin American Studies). However, he is also fascinated by mythology, religion, physics, astronomy and mathematics, especially with matters related to quanta, cosmology and cosmogony. He can be contacted at guillermo.calvo.mahe@gmail.com and much of his writing is available through his blog at https://guillermocalvo.com/.

[1] Kanno-Youngs, Z., Pager, T., Rogers, K., & Sanger, D. E. (2026, January 8): “Trump lays out a vision of power restrained only by my own morality”. The New York Times. nytimes.com

Perspectives as of October 27, 2026 Concerning the Upcoming United States Congressional Elections

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The current probabilities, based on national polling aggregates and statistical models (using artificial intelligence as a research tool), with one week to go until the November 3, 2026 United States midterm Congressional elections, seem to project a significant “blue wave”, perhaps even a “blue tsunami”,  driven by slumping approval ratings for President Donald Trump and disapproval of his subordination of United States interests to Israel, especially with respect to the Pearl Harbor-like attack by the United States and Israel against Iran and United States support for Israeli genocide and ethnic cleansing in Palestine and Lebanon.  The following synthesized breakdown of projections from major polling agencies, forecasters, and betting markets outlines the current expectations for both chambers.  However, a caveat, rather than an exact science, polling has been largely converted into a tool for manipulation of results and thus results have, in the recent past, been wildly inaccurate.

In the House of Representatives (the “House”), Republicans currently hold 218 seats, Democrats hold 212 with one independent and four vacancies.  Projections imply that after the November elections, Democrats will hold between 229 and 242 seats while Republicans will hold between 193 and 206.  In the Senate, Republicans currently hold 53 seats with an additional vote by Vice President Vance in the event of a tie and Democrats and their “independent” allies hold 47.  That is projected to change after the elections with Democrats expected to hold between 51 and 54 seats and Republicans between 49 and 51 but, in the event of a tie, once more Vice President Vance would cast the deciding vote.  There is, however, a significant wild card, Pennsylvania Senator John Fetterman.  He is currently a Democrat but might well elect to caucus with or vote with the GOP.  There are also a number of Democratic Senators with deep ties to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (“AIPAC”) such as Democratic Party Senate leader Charles E. Schumer, Nevada’s Jacky Rosen, Californians Adam Schiff and Alex Padilla, Pennsylvania Democrats Bob Casey and John Fetterman, Montana’s Jon Tester, Hawaii’s Mazie Hirono and surprisingly, Massachusetts’ Elizabeth Warren (among others), who are may join Republican Senators in matters of importance to Israel, the same being true in the House[1].

The following are the latest projections by major forecasting organizations:

  • As of October 26, Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) projected a 55% probability that Democrats would take complete control of both chambers (a unified Congress), with a 24% chance that Republicans would retain the Senate while losing the House and just a 19% chance that Republicans would hold on to both.  The projected seat breakdown assumes that Democrats will win 238 seats in the House and 51 seats in the Senate.
  • As of October 23, the Cook Political Report projected that a majority of House will be controlled by Democrats, placing 214 seats as solid, likely, or leaning Democratic—meaning Democrats only need to capture 4 out of the 17 unallocated “Toss-Up” seats to take the gavel.  As to the Senate, it places 7 seats in the true “toss-pp” category: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas. To secure a 51-seat majority, Democrats must hold Michigan and successfully flip four of the remaining Republican-held states.
  • As of October 27, CBS News / YouGov Poll projected that Democrats would secure 229 seats in the House, an 11-seat buffer over the required 218 threshold.
  • As of October 27, PBS News / NPR / Marist Poll reflected a generic commanding 8-point lead (52% to 44%) among likely voters nationwide for Democrats in the upcoming elections. The poll highlighted strong enthusiasm indicators, with 71% of Democrats expressing high eagerness to vote compared to 61% of Republicans.
  • As of late October, the Polymarket & Kalshi Prediction Markets (a gaming platform) gave the Democratic Party a 91% to 92% chance of controlling the House and a 66% chance of capturing the Senate.

The foregoing may well be impacted on a personal level by the arrogance and lack of discursive objectivity of many Trump supporting Republicans in their interaction with potential voters who are not, “dyed in the wool” Trump supporters. I am among those who have been turned off by the hubris of Trump supporters, although, in all honesty, as an independent, I would never support any AIPAC backed candidate, whether Republican, Democratic, third party or independent.  Nonetheless, I am profoundly disappointed that so many United States voters who I respect and for whom I have profound affection, having studied with them or taught them, are among those who seem abysmally ignorant as to history, philosophy and international affairs and as to what communism, socialism or Islam really are, although they are totally convinced as to their expertise with respect to the foregoing.  It’s true that United States citizens have always tended to be unaware of a great deal outside the propaganda they are fed (and which I was also fed, and which, for a while, I taught) but they have become significantly more aggressive, counterintuitive and, in the long term (now heading towards the short term), bellicose in a counterproductive manner.  They seem trapped in echo chambers where they preach to each other as loudly and insistently as they can, disregarding contrary realities that they would need to understand in order to convince others, rather than to alienate them.  Perhaps given their current perspectives, that’s a good thing.

Many such people with whom I regularly associate and, outside of politics and religion, with whom I have a great deal in common, ironically consider themselves devout Christians while concurrently avowed capitalists, not realizing how incoherently inconsistent those positions are.  I am not a believer in the divinity of “Jesus” but am profoundly in favor of the doctrines which he is credited with espousing, doctrines such as “treating others as one would be treated”, acceptance of forgiveness and reformation as guiding principles and supporting the most disadvantaged among us, that, as contrasted with the intolerance and elitism favored by Saul of Tarsus who so thoroughly succeeded in distorting Jesus’ message.  I am a progressive democratic socialist, like Albert Einstein, Martin Luther King, Jr., Nelson Mandela, Noam Chomsky, Salvador Allende, Clement Attlee, Olof Palme, Jawaharlal Nehru. Mohandas Gandhi, David Ben-Gurion, Willy Brandt, Eugene V. Debs, George Orwell, Bertrand Russell, Helen Keller and now, Zohran Mamdani, and thus, abhor both the Republican and Democratic parties.

At any event, regardless of the outcome of the upcoming elections, AIPAC’s control over the Democratic Party’s current and anticipated leadership means that even if Democratic Party candidates overwhelm their Republican opponents by historic margins, nothing is likely to change except for the political affiliation of the victims of lawfare.  That is so despite widespread voter dissatisfaction with the Democratic Party’s current leadership or with the control exercised by AIPAC over the Democratic (as well as Republican) Party.  Oddly, it is GOP dissidents who have become disenchanted by the Trump administration’s betrayal of his purported America First and antiwar pledges who espouse the most progressive, anti-AIPAC messaging.  People like Tucker Carlson, Nick Fuentes, Joe Kent, Senator Rand Paul, former Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, Representative Mark Amodei of Nevada, Representative Don Bacon of Nebraska, Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina and especially, Kentucky Representative Thomas Massie.  It’s ironic that GOP dissidents and democratic socialists in the Democratic Party both seem to believe that the changes they view as existentially necessary have to be accomplished through internal reform of their respective political parties rather than through an alliance between them given that they have so much more in common with each other than they do with the AIPAC controlled traditionalist in their current parties.  But that’s how politics has functioned ever since the presidential election of 1860 in the United States, in the United States where democracy is quasi-legally defined as a bipartisan dictatorship through legally favored duopoly.  Thus, the likelihood following the Congressional elections is, as is usual in United States politics, that the more things change, the more they either stay the same or become even worse.

Don’t forget to vote and, as president Trump privately urges, vote early and vote often.

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© Guillermo Calvo Mahé; Manizales, 2026 (except for the image which is the property of the New Republic); all rights reserved.  Please feel free to share with appropriate attribution.

Guillermo (“Bill”) Calvo Mahé (a sometime poet and aspiring empirical philosopher) is a writer, political commentator and academic currently residing in the Republic of Colombia (although he has primarily lived in the United States of America of which he is also a citizen). Until 2017 he chaired the political science, government and international relations programs at the Universidad Autónoma de Manizales. Previously, he chaired the social studies and foreign language departments at the Eastern Military Academy in Huntington, New York. He is currently the publisher of the Inannite Review available at Substack.com; an intermittent commentator on radio and television in both Colombia and abroad; and, an occasional contributor to diverse periodicals and publications. He has academic degrees in political science (BA, The Citadel, the Military College of South Carolina), law (JD, St. John’s University, School of Law), international legal studies (LL.M, the Graduate Division of the New York University School of Law) and translation and linguistic studies (GCTS, the University of Florida’s Center for Latin American Studies). However, he is also fascinated by mythology, religion, physics, astronomy and mathematics, especially with matters related to quanta, cosmology and cosmogony. He can be contacted at guillermo.calvo.mahe@gmail.com and much of his writing is available through his blog at https://guillermocalvo.com/.

[1] In the current Congress, 247 Democrats and 268 Republicans in the House have direct financial support from AIPAC on record. Almost the entire current Senate has accepted pro-Israel PAC backing. The upcoming Congress will see a minor decline due to retirements and targeted general election dropouts where candidates have refused AIPAC alignment as a litmus test.

Initial Observations on the Results in the Second Round of Brazil’s Presidential Election

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In Brazil, unlike other Latin American countries, the foreign vote was not decidedly right wing.  Lula won by over 3.5% of the vote, well over four million votes, a turnaround of over six million votes with a virtually identical voter turnout.  In ancient Rome, generals participating in triumphal parades had a man dyed red standing behind them reminding them they were human.  At times, in two round presidential elections like Brazil’s, voters do the same, voting against someone in the first round as a warning, but supporting him or her in the second.  Nonetheless, the shock of the first round will probably lead to changes in Lula’s governance in areas involving crime and violence, and with respect to more attention to food basket economics. 

Because Lula will not be eligible for reelection in four years but many Bolsonaros will be, and because the Brazilian left lacks a viable successor, at least at present, the future does not look as bleak for the Brazilian right as a Bolsonaro victory would have been for the left.   Notwithstanding his impressive comeback victory, governing for Lula will prove extremely difficult given the right’s control over Congress.  His victory, however, is a serious defeat for President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu’s aspirations in Latin America and may bode ill for their own parties in the upcoming elections in their own countries.

Had Bolsonaro won, the United States would have quickly entered into long term agreements for natural resources, especially in the Amazon which would have been freed up for development and Israel would have gained another important foothold in Latin America.  There would have been significant deregulation and reduction of public spending, except with respect to police and the armed forces.  Integration with other Latin American countries would likely have been abandoned, as would Brazil’s leadership role in the BRICS.  The Constitution would likely have been significantly amended in a manner making it easier to reshape the Supreme Court and entrench right wing rule, and, given the right’s control of Congress, it still may be.

Interestingly, the orchestrated transportation delays in Lula oriented districts in Northern Brazil were overcome by the two hour voting extensions while the weather delays in the South were apparently not.  However, since both sides asked for the extension, neither side can legitimately challenge it. 

Pro-Bolsonaro evangelicals may be wondering why God intervened in that manner.
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© Guillermo Calvo Mahé; Manizales, 2026; all rights reserved.  Please feel free to share with appropriate attribution.  However, photograph copyright belongs to CNN.

Guillermo (“Bill”) Calvo Mahé (a sometime poet and aspiring empirical philosopher) is a writer, political commentator and academic currently residing in the Republic of Colombia (although he has primarily lived in the United States of America of which he is also a citizen). Until 2017 he chaired the political science, government and international relations programs at the Universidad Autónoma de Manizales. Previously, he chaired the social studies and foreign language departments at the Eastern Military Academy in Huntington, New York. He is currently the publisher of the Inannite Review available at Substack.com; an intermittent commentator on radio and television in both Colombia and abroad; and, an occasional contributor to diverse periodicals and publications. He has academic degrees in political science (BA, The Citadel, the Military College of South Carolina), law (JD, St. John’s University, School of Law), international legal studies (LL.M, the Graduate Division of the New York University School of Law) and translation and linguistic studies (GCTS, the University of Florida’s Center for Latin American Studies). However, he is also fascinated by mythology, religion, physics, astronomy and mathematics, especially with matters related to quanta, cosmology and cosmogony. He can be contacted at guillermo.calvo.mahe@gmail.com and much of his writing is available through his blog at https://guillermocalvo.com/.

Reflections on the Bolsonaro Dynasty and the 2026 Brazilian Elections

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The following is the transcript for the segment by Guillermo Calvo Mahé in a special report by India’s NewsX World with respect to the Bolsonaro Dynasty in Brazil, a reality regardless of the final results of the 2026 Brazilian Elections.  It has been slightly edited to correct grammatical issues and provide context and updating information has been added:
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On Sunday October 4, the Brazilian electorate followed the path of most recent Latin American elections, at least as far as the Congress is concerned, rejecting the progressive left and embracing the conservative right.  In that context, a question arises as to whether Brazil’s turn to the right is a reaction against what the public perceives of as a moribund and corrupt economy (notwithstanding significant progress in minimizing poverty during the current administration) or whether it reflects the crystallization of a Bolsonaro family dynasty (given the fact that so many members of the Bolsonaro family are now in elected positions of power).  Jahir Bolsonaro, the family’s patriarch, was 38th president of Brazil, having served in that role from 2019 to 2023 and as a member of the Chamber of Deputies from 1991 to 2019.  Previously, he served as a captain in the Brazilian army.  However, he has been in prison serving a twenty-seven year sentence for organizing an attempted coup against his successor, the current president of Brazil, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who is currently running for reelection against Jahir Bolsonaro’s son, Flavio.

One answer to the unexpected results of the initial round of the Brazilian elections which involved not only the presidency but the Chamber of Deputies, a significant part of the Senate and the powerful state governors seems to be that, come what may during the final round of presidential voting on October 31, Jahir Bolsonaro has managed to install his family firmly in control of the Congress and in likely control of the presidency.  If so, that would quickly lead to his from imprisonment and expand Bolsonaro family control of the federal judiciary as well.

So, who are the members of the evolving Bolsonaro family dynasty?  Let’s start with Flavio.

Flavio is not his father’s clone nor a mere figurehead.  He has his own 23 year political career including eight years as a senator and, although his father is certainly Flavio’s political mentor, they have differing styles and different focuses, something Flavio emphasizes: 

  • Flavio’s presidential campaign stressed down to earth economic issues and concerns rather than abstract ideological issues and Flavio used a more restrained personal style, reaching out to centrist voters as well as focusing on conservative themes.  Still, like his father, he also stressed his relationships with the United States and Israel would be much more positive, his relations with China more limited and that his interests in the BRICS coalition would be secondary at best.
  • As in all recent elections in Latin America, Flavio’s stressed the problem of allegedly rampant crime and a decline in morals urging a return to traditional Christian values and was highly critical of the threats of an emerging socialist state.
  • Flavio’s campaign focused on sophisticated use of targeted and tightly focused social media rather than on the mass, amateur WhatsApp forwarding networks used by his father and, perhaps thanks to his brother Eduardo’s US contacts, his use of the Internet was extremely well financed by, among others, the Rockbridge Network, a group co-founded by U.S. Vice President JD Vance and backed by prominent right-wing donors and Silicon Valley investors such as Peter Thiel and Rebekah Mercer, and supporters of Israel.

Of course, a political dynasty such as that established in India by the Nehru–Gandhi family, in the United States by the Kennedy and Bush families or as is common in many Latin American countries, is a complex concept, but it is one that the family’s patriarch, Jahir Bolsonaro, has apparently mastered. 

The second round of the presidential election is not clear cut as most believe given that 40 million voters either did not participate (notwithstanding Brazil’s mandatory voting requirements) or cast null or none of the above ballots in the first round of voting and, as October 25 approaches, polls indicated that it is tightening, although Flavio remains in the lead, but, even if enough voters who failed to participate in the initial round were pulled into the Lula camp to overcome Flavio’s initial two million plus lead and a Lula comeback took place, a Bolsonaro political dynastic structure seems firmly in place, one that, given the age of its diverse members, could last for decades. 

For example, in addition to Flavio, Jahir Bolsonaro’s current wife, Michelle, Jahir’s third wife and Flavio’s second step mother, is virtually the same age as Flavio and an ambitious political power on her own, especially among evangelical Christians and among conservative women, two constituencies largely responsible for Flavio’s success in the first round.  She is also extremely powerful in the Liberal Party, the political party that sponsors the Bolsonaro family, even more so than Flavio.  In the recent elections she attained the highest vote ever for the Brazilian Senate.  But Flavio and his brothers have had serious conflicts with Michelle and their goals and ambitions are not always compatible.

In addition to Michelle, the Bolsonaro clan now boasts a number of other members of Congress with current and future electoral aspirations.  Flavio’s brother Carlos (age 43), the family’s social media and digital genius, is now in the Senate; 28 year old Jair Renan, Flavio’s half-brother, is now a deputy in the Chamber of Deputies; Flavio’s brother Eduardo, age 43, is a former Deputy who fled to the United States when threatened with possible prosecution for lobbying foreign powers to intervene in his father’s trial (he was convicted in absentia) but used his exile very successfully to cultivate strong ties with members of the Trump administration and is likely to return and resume his political career; and, Jahir’s brother, the uncle of the clan, Renato Bolsonaro, age 62, also won a seat in the incoming Congress. There are also Michelle’s two daughters waiting on the sidelines (one in her teens and the other in her twenties), the eldest from a previous relationship. 

So yes, Flavio Bolsonaro successfully used economic discontent to pull ahead of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the initial round of voting but a Bolsonaro political dynasty definitely seems to be coalescing in Brazil although perhaps, who will lead it, is not always clear.
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As an update with respect to the election itself, it appears that foreign interference in the second round of Brazil’s presidential elections has significantly intensified, including alleged intervention by Meta in favor of Flavio Bolsonaro. The Lula campaign has formally accused Meta’s platforms (Instagram, Facebook, and WhatsApp) of having utilized biased algorithms, restricted content distribution, and disabled advertising capabilities to systematically disadvantage Lula and favor Flavio.

The core allegations against Meta have involved accusations that the Meta AI engine is intrinsically biased. For instance, the AI system reportedly refused to generate campaign images or content when using the prompt “Lula 13” but readily generated them for “Flávio 22”.  The Lula campaign specifically claimed that Instagram restricted Lula’s official profile from promoting feed posts, froze or interrupted video view counts and temporarily caused his profile and other left-wing leaders to disappear from search results prior to the first round of voting.  The allegations have neutral support; for example, the non-profit group Ekō alleged that Meta broke Brazilian electoral laws by approving foreign-funded, AI-generated ads that spread disinformation and hate speech. A separate study from the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro found over 1,600 irregular political advertisements on Meta platforms funded primarily from the United States and Israel which violates Brazil’s ban on foreign electoral spending.

In mid-October 2026, Justice Marco Aurélio Bellizze of Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court ordered Meta to take immediate action to guarantee equal treatment for both candidates. The court mandated that Meta apply identical criteria for its AI tools and barred the company from suppressing political content or search results to cause a campaign imbalance. Meta was also issued a tight deadline to submit granular, profile-by-profile explanations of any restrictions applied to Lula’s accounts.

As expected, Meta denied any political bias rejecting all claims of “deliberate” bias or political engineering, stating that its systems do not distribute content based on ideology and are applied equally worldwide.  In its defense, Meta cited widespread, unrelated global technical issues. The company stated that a freeze on Instagram Reels view counts impacted creators across more than 100 countries and was not isolated to Lula’s account. Similarly, a brief disruption to ad-creation tools affected users globally rather than targeting specific campaigns.

Notwithstanding the abovementioned, given time constraints, none of the foregoing is anticipated to have a significant impact on the highly polarized electorate.  Indeed electoral violence and threats of violence, primarily from supporters of the Bolsonaro which have sought to intimidate the electorate may be more important.  For example, on October 7, 2026, a major fire devastated UFPE’s Innovation Directorate building in Recife, destroying pharmaceutical, computer science, and genetics laboratories. This incident followed two other fires at the institution within an eight-day span, causing an estimated R$100 million in damages and obliterating two decades of scientific research.  The fires broke out immediately after students held protests on campus supporting President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and opposing Flavio Bolsonaro ahead of the October 25 presidential runoff election. Because the fires occurred hours after students received explicit bomb threats attributed to Bolsonaro supporters, Brazil’s Federal Police and the Federal Prosecutor’s Office opened a criminal investigation into the matter.
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© NewsX World and Guillermo Calvo Mahé; Manizales, 2026; all rights reserved.  Please feel free to share with appropriate attribution.

Guillermo (“Bill”) Calvo Mahé (a sometime poet and aspiring empirical philosopher) is a writer, political commentator and academic currently residing in the Republic of Colombia (although he has primarily lived in the United States of America of which he is also a citizen). Until 2017 he chaired the political science, government and international relations programs at the Universidad Autónoma de Manizales. Previously, he chaired the social studies and foreign language departments at the Eastern Military Academy in Huntington, New York. He is currently the publisher of the Inannite Review available at Substack.com; an intermittent commentator on radio and television in both Colombia and abroad; and, an occasional contributor to diverse periodicals and publications. He has academic degrees in political science (BA, The Citadel, the Military College of South Carolina), law (JD, St. John’s University, School of Law), international legal studies (LL.M, the Graduate Division of the New York University School of Law) and translation and linguistic studies (GCTS, the University of Florida’s Center for Latin American Studies). However, he is also fascinated by mythology, religion, physics, astronomy and mathematics, especially with matters related to quanta, cosmology and cosmogony. He can be contacted at guillermo.calvo.mahe@gmail.com and much of his writing is available through his blog at https://guillermocalvo.com/.

Reflexiones sobre reflexiones

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«Ve’betarayin yehon qadmayin ve’qadmayin betarayin» («הָרִאשׁוֹנִים יִהְיוּ אַחֲרוֹנִים וְהָאַחֲרוֹנִים – רִאשׁוֹנִים» en hebreo); la primera frase estaba en arameo.  «Los primeros serán los últimos y los últimos serán los primeros», según se dice, eso proclamó Jesús —o más exactamente, Yešu—. Pero ¿qué hay de los que están entre esos dos polos? ¿Existirá una relación inversa en toda la escala? ¿Y qué decir de los que ocupan el centro: los insípidos, los tibios o casi fríos, aquellos que, buscando mantener abiertas todas las opciones, se niegan a tomar partido? ¿Dónde se situarán y cuándo?

Por supuesto, están los hipócritas, los mentirosos, los manipuladores; aquellos que adoptan una postura sin intención alguna de actuar en consecuencia y que, de hecho, a menudo actúan de manera totalmente opuesta a lo que dicen defender. Suelen congregarse en la política, el derecho, el periodismo y entre el clero.

Hay quienes consideran que los que están en el medio son los peores de todos: los cobardes, los cómplices. Claro que en ese punto intermedio hay diversas variantes, y tal vez distintos olores. La ambivalencia. ¿En qué se diferencia de la indecisión? ¿O de la apatía? ¿Y cuál podría ser la relación entre la apatía y lo patético?

Hay quienes afirman que «es mejor haber amado y perdido que no nunca haber amado». ¿Cómo se traduce esto conceptualmente en el caso de quienes expresan su opinión y resultan estar equivocados, frente a aquellos que, por miedo a equivocarse, nunca opinan?

¿Dónde te situarías tú?

Es solo una pregunta.

Se atribuye a Albert Einstein la siguiente frase: «El mundo es un lugar peligroso para vivir, no por causa de los malvados, sino por aquellos que no hacen nada al respecto».

Me pregunto qué diría Yešu.
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© Guillermo Calvo Mahé; Manizales, 2026; todos derechos reservados.  Permiso para compartir con atribución.

Guillermo Calvo Mahé es escritor, comentarista, analista político y académico residente en la República de Colombia. Aspira ser poeta y filósofo empírico y a veces se lo cree.  Hasta el 2017 coordinaba los programas de Ciencia Política, Gobierno y Relaciones Internacionales de la Universidad Autónoma de Manizales. En la actualidad, participa en entrevistas radiales y televisadas, foros, seminarios y congresos cívicos tabto en Colombia como en el exterior y edita y publica la revista virtual, The Inannite Review disponible en Substack.com/.  Tiene títulos académicos en ciencias políticas (del Citadel, la universidad militar de la Carolina del Sur), derecho (de la St. John’s University en la ciudad de Nueva York), estudios jurídicos internacionales (de la facultad posgrado de derecho de la New York University) y estudios posgrado de lingüística y traducción (del Centro de Estudios Latinoamericanos de la Universidad de la Florida).  Sin embargo, también es fascinado por la mitología, la religión, la física, la astronomía y las matemáticas, especialmente en lo relacionado con lo cuántico y la cosmogonía.  Puede ser contactado en guillermo.calvo.mahe@gmail.com y gran parte de su escritura está disponible a través de su blog en https://guillermocalvo.com/.

A Very Brief Reflection on Non-Citizen Impact on Governance in the United States

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On August 13 of this year (2026), Sue Seboda published an article on Substack entitled “Will the SAVE Act Save America or is it just more spitballs and sledgehammers…”.  It follows a multipart series of articles Sue has written and published on Substack dealing with the history of immigration and immigration legislation in the United States, a decent fairly objective effort worth reading, as is her latest article which can be accessed at https://sueseboda.substack.com/p/will-the-save-act-save-america?r=lwzkv&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web.  Sue strikes me as being on the conservative side of the political spectrum but objective and open minded.  I like her work.  I, on the other hand, am and have long been a democratic socialist along the lines of Noam Chomsky, Nelson Mandela, Pepe Mujica, Martin Luther King, Jr., etc. (not to be confused with Vladimir Lenin, Joseph Stalin or even Leon Trotsky).

Sue’s article deals with very significant issues, issues that also impact other critical issues not dealt with in the article such as the nature of the federal decennial census used to apportion Congressional representation and distribute federal funds and the issue of birthright citizenship, all of which should probably be dealt with concurrently via a federal constitutional clarifying amendment after robust debate that results in legal requirements that deal with real problems in a manner avoiding discrimination based on race, gender, religious beliefs or  national origins but definitely limits the roles of non-citizens in United States institutions.  The article focuses on the pros and cons of the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act (SAVE Act), a proposed Congressional bill that would requires individuals to provide documentary proof of United States citizenship (such as a passport or certified birth certificate) when registering to vote in federal elections.

If formal participation in the political process by undocumented migrants is an important issue, an even more critical issue has been ignored and is generally ignored, the role of foreign governments and their agents, advocates and representative in the United States electoral and political system and the role of campaign contributions from sources ineligible to vote in the elections impacted, including political action committees, corporations, labor unions, chambers of commerce and individuals.  That is a real clear and present danger.  The two great villains in the foregoing, albeit not the only ones, are the Israeli American Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) and the United States Supreme Court, especially in its Citizens United decision, Citizens United v. FEC; 558 U.S. 310 (2010) and its June 30, 2026 decision in National Republican Senatorial Committee v. Federal Election Commission, 609 U.S. ____ (2026).  Of course, the legacy media focuses primarily on imaginary roles by Russia and China, ignoring the reality of United States interference in foreign elections, most recently, along with Israel, throughout Latin America.

For the most part (in the author’s opinion), the least rational political posture with respect to securing the electoral process has been that adopted by the Democratic Party and its activist base which vehemently oppose action to require picture identification and proof of citizenship to vote.  That specifically includes vehement opposition to the SAVE Act which includes concepts that enjoy overwhelming support among the citizenry, opposition to which is likely to cost the Democratic Party a significant number of votes among the independent voter community in upcoming Congressional elections.  The SAVE Act is far from perfect and could certainly use a bit of constitutional and pragmatic polish though its premises seem sound.  However, a rising swell of Republicans, apparently political descendants of the nineteenth century “American Party”[1], are seeking clearly inappropriate actions designed to minimize the rights and even citizenship status of United States citizens, especially naturalized citizens and Islamic Americans, or indeed any United States citizens opposed to Zionist and Israeli control over United States officials, both elected and appointed.  Republican advocates have gone as far as to demand that certain United States citizens be stripped of their citizenship and expelled from the United States for opposing policies such as undeclared wars and support for genocide and ethnic cleansing, or that they at least be imprisoned and deprived of their political rights.  The foregoing is even more ludicrous than Democratic Party and Democratic Party activist opposition to limiting the right to vote and receipt of federal benefits, as a right, to United States citizens.

The reality is that the positions of both the Democratic and Republican parties are based on few moral, ethical, legal or constitutional factors but rather, only on how they benefit their ability to dominate government at all levels: federal, state and local.  That is something that should disgust all decent citizens regardless of their favored political ideologies but, unfortunately, the communications and entertainment industries in the United States, rather than educate and enlighten, manipulate, obfuscate, confuse and deceive, making functional democracy at best highly improbable, inefficient and dysfunctional, i.e., the ludicrous system we have today led by the ludicrous national leaders proffered by both major political parties for the past half century: i.e., William Jefferson Clinton, George W. Bush, Barack H. Obama, Joseph Robinette Biden and Donald J. Trump (with their supporting casts in Congress, the Judiciary and the Bureaucracy, led by their noses by the Military Industrial Complex against which President Dwight David Eisenhower warned as he left office).

It may be that at some level things are changing, ironically, based on dissidents within the Republican Party (such as Tucker Carlson, Marjorie Taylor Green, Thomas Massie, Joe Kent and Candace Owens) seeking a real “Make America First” alternative, and on an evolving democratic socialist wing in the Democratic Party led by recently elected New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani.  I confess to admiring them all, though I’m not always in full agreement with them.  If they could somehow unite and develop a platform based on issues with which they agree, and there are many, many of the worst problems engrained for over a century in United States politics might be minimized.  However, that is a posture their respective followers appear to consider anathema and thus, such a scenario is only a bit more probable than Hell freezing over or the United States electorate finally coming to grips with the Declaration of Independence they claim to revere.

Good article Sue!!!
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© Guillermo Calvo Mahé; Manizales, 2026; all rights reserved.  Please feel free to share with appropriate attribution.

Guillermo (“Bill”) Calvo Mahé (a sometime poet and aspiring empirical philosopher) is a writer, political commentator and academic currently residing in the Republic of Colombia (although he has primarily lived in the United States of America of which he is also a citizen). Until 2017 he chaired the political science, government and international relations programs at the Universidad Autónoma de Manizales. Previously, he chaired the social studies and foreign language departments at the Eastern Military Academy in Huntington, New York. He is currently the publisher of the Inannite Review available at Substack.com; an intermittent commentator on radio and television; and, an occasional contributor to diverse periodicals and publications. He has academic degrees in political science (BA, The Citadel, the Military College of South Carolina), law (JD, St. John’s University, School of Law), international legal studies (LL.M, the Graduate Division of the New York University School of Law) and translation and linguistic studies (GCTS, the University of Florida’s Center for Latin American Studies). However, he is also fascinated by mythology, religion, physics, astronomy and mathematics, especially with matters related to quanta, cosmology and cosmogony. He can be contacted at guillermo.calvo.mahe@gmail.com and much of his writing is available through his blog at https://guillermocalvo.com/.

[1] Better known as the “Know Nothing Party”.

A Very Brief Observation Concerning the Concept of Treason in a Pluralistic Democracy

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The concept that rejecting the political posture of an individual or political movement or party can constitute “treason” in a pluralistic democracy is oxymoronic.  

The allegiance of a citizen in a democracy is to the corporate concept of the “People”, not to any person or political party, and certainly not to any serving government.  Perhaps not even to the “State”.

The principal political duty of individuals in a democracy is to maintain their civic responsibilities by informing and educating themselves, exercising their reason and common sense, and sharing their opinions with other citizens without fear of reprisals, calumnies or ridicule. 

The foregoing is something almost entirely absent from current discourse in purported Western democracies.  Perhaps the “adjective “Western” now changes the nature of the noun modified making it synonymous instead with oligarchical autocracy and dictatorship.
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© Guillermo Calvo Mahé; Manizales, 2026; all rights reserved.  Please feel free to share with appropriate attribution.

Guillermo (“Bill”) Calvo Mahé (a sometime poet and aspiring empirical philosopher) is a writer, political commentator and academic currently residing in the Republic of Colombia (although he has primarily lived in the United States of America of which he is also a citizen). Until 2017 he chaired the political science, government and international relations programs at the Universidad Autónoma de Manizales. Previously, he chaired the social studies and foreign language departments at the Eastern Military Academy in Huntington, New York. He is currently the publisher of the Inannite Review available at Substack.com; an intermittent commentator on radio and television; and, an occasional contributor to diverse periodicals and publications. He has academic degrees in political science (BA, The Citadel, the Military College of South Carolina), law (JD, St. John’s University, School of Law), international legal studies (LL.M, the Graduate Division of the New York University School of Law) and translation and linguistic studies (GCTS, the University of Florida’s Center for Latin American Studies). However, he is also fascinated by mythology, religion, physics, astronomy and mathematics, especially with matters related to quanta, cosmology and cosmogony. He can be contacted at guillermo.calvo.mahe@gmail.com and much of his writing is available through his blog at https://guillermocalvo.com/.

Introspective, Self-Deprecating Quote of the Day, July 30, 2026

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“Even the most foolish among us may be capable, deliberately or inadvertently, of transcendental wisdom thus, there may be hope for me yet.”  Guillermo Calvo Mahé, July 30, 2026.

A quote inspired by recollections of one phrase uttered by Howard Dean, a failed Democratic Party candidate, decades ago: “…we have to change minds and change hearts—one heart at a time.” 

Something that has always remained with me and inspires me to keep writing and publishing during times such as ours.  Times such as those that Sigmund Freud must have been thinking of while in Vienna during 1938 when, in his preface to Moses and Monotheism, he wrote: “in darker times there lived a man who thought as you do”. 

We all know what followed: the Second World War, the Holocaust, the atomic bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the colonization of Palestine by Zionist invaders and the ensuing Nakba, and then, ….  well things have become even worse.
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© Guillermo Calvo Mahé; Manizales, 2026; all rights reserved.  Please feel free to share with appropriate attribution.

Guillermo (“Bill”) Calvo Mahé (a sometime poet and aspiring empirical philosopher) is a writer, political commentator and academic currently residing in the Republic of Colombia (although he has primarily lived in the United States of America of which he is also a citizen). Until 2017 he chaired the political science, government and international relations programs at the Universidad Autónoma de Manizales. Previously, he chaired the social studies and foreign language departments at the Eastern Military Academy in Huntington, New York. He is currently the publisher of the Inannite Review available at Substack.com; an intermittent commentator on radio and television; and, an occasional contributor to diverse periodicals and publications. He has academic degrees in political science (BA, The Citadel, the Military College of South Carolina), law (JD, St. John’s University, School of Law), international legal studies (LL.M, the Graduate Division of the New York University School of Law) and translation and linguistic studies (GCTS, the University of Florida’s Center for Latin American Studies). However, he is also fascinated by mythology, religion, physics, astronomy and mathematics, especially with matters related to quanta, cosmology and cosmogony. He can be contacted at guillermo.calvo.mahe@gmail.com and much of his writing is available through his blog at https://guillermocalvo.com/.

New Warnings Fresh from the Echoes of Trojan Princess Cassandra’s Dystopic Visions, Israeli Edition

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On January 10, 2026, at 10:55 a.m., EDST, ToI Staff and Jacob Magid of the Times of Israel reported that “Israel had warned the United States that Iran devised a new plot to assassinate Trump”.[1]

Just how stupid does Israel think the majority of people in the United States are? 

Well, given the probable truth behind the assassination of JFK, the destruction of the Twin Towers, the “Six Day War, the Nakba, etc., very stupid indeed.  And the Israeli leadership has a point.  So much so that it is brazenly adding a new element to its hoped for total destruction of Iran.

First, Israeli leadership talked Donald J. Trump into going on an assassination spree in Iran, a frequent Mossad tactic but this time engaged in on an industrial scale using the United States as the weapon.  Then, Netanyahu terrified Mr. Trump (like Mr. Netanyahu, he’s not very brave unless heavily protected or in a bunker) by whispering into his ear that such actions might have consequences.  Horrors, tit for tat.  But, then again, speaking of tits, the United States and its tax payers have been providing Israel with all it wants for three quarters of a century.

Sooo, by claiming that if Mr. Trump is assassinated it will have been the Iranians’ who were  responsible, Israel’s leaders have apparently set in a motion a plan where United States retaliation will implement the Greater Israel project at little or no cost to the Israeli state (as occurred in Iraq and Libya and Syria, etc.).  Which in turn means that should that occur, it will probably have been Israel that orchestrated the assassination, whether or not it was actually Israelis who carried it out (think Twin Towers); especially with a cadre of United States politicians whose loyalty is to Israel ready to replace Mr. Trump, perhaps permanently, given Israeli success in electoral manipulation all over the world.

Something to bear in mind as Israel once again collectively cries wolf (think antisemitism and holocaust) while it sort of pretends to dress in (slaughtered) sheep’s clothing.

Apologies for all the parentheticals (for some reason, they just seemed appropriate).
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© Guillermo Calvo Mahé; Manizales, 2026; all rights reserved.  Please feel free to share with appropriate attribution.

Guillermo (“Bill”) Calvo Mahé (a sometime poet and aspiring empirical philosopher) is a writer, political commentator and academic currently residing in the Republic of Colombia (although he has primarily lived in the United States of America of which he is also a citizen). Until 2017 he chaired the political science, government and international relations programs at the Universidad Autónoma de Manizales. Previously, he chaired the social studies and foreign language departments at the Eastern Military Academy in Huntington, New York. He is currently the publisher of the Inannite Review available at Substack.com; an intermittent commentator on radio and television; and, an occasional contributor to diverse periodicals and publications. He has academic degrees in political science (BA, The Citadel, the Military College of South Carolina), law (JD, St. John’s University, School of Law), international legal studies (LL.M, the Graduate Division of the New York University School of Law) and translation and linguistic studies (GCTS, the University of Florida’s Center for Latin American Studies). However, he is also fascinated by mythology, religion, physics, astronomy and mathematics, especially with matters related to quanta, cosmology and cosmogony. He can be contacted at guillermo.calvo.mahe@gmail.com and much of his writing is available through his blog at https://guillermocalvo.com/.

[1] The article, “Israel reportedly warned US that Iran devised a new plot to assassinate Trump” can be accessed at https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-reportedly-warned-us-that-iran-devised-a-new-plot-to-assassinate-trump/.

Un “Duce” para Colombia

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Dos errores fundamentales cometió Gustavo Francisco Petro Urrego en su presidencia y fueron graves y muy costoso.  Primero, aunque con buenas intenciones, se rodeó de personas equivocadas: ineptas en algunos casos, desleales en otros y corruptos en otros.  Y segundo, no pudo controlar sus instintos pugnaces lo cual les permitió a quienes le querían causar daño manipularlo en forma constante, primero insultando o calumniándolo y luego criticando su reacción cuando en forma agresiva se defendía; obvia hipocresía pero efectiva. 

En lo último necesitaba algo más de sabiduría y disciplina.  Las políticas que propuso fueron brillantes y nobles (como es el), y son esenciales, pero no se lograron en un sistema tan profundamente corrupto como es el colombiano, y eso en el legislativo, la judicatura y la burocracia.  Es probable que si el presidente hubiese sido perfecto en todo aspecto esa corrupción coordinada para mantener el poder en las manos de los peores entre nosotros aun habría logrado evitar que se lograra un gobierno justo, equitativo y sostenible y la culpa por eso no es del señor Petro sino de un electorado tan inepto y manipulable que imposibilita lo que a ellos más les beneficiaría. 

Esa es la maldición de la democracia y no solo en Colombia, no solo en la América Latina, pero también en Norte América y en Europa y en el mundo Anglosajón.  El que controla la información controla el electorado y el electorado es más fácil engañar y manipular hoy que en cualquier tiempo de la historia.  Y el control de la información se ha vuelto un arte y una ciencia malévola con los nuevos medios y las nuevas tecnologías, un arte y una ciencia controlada por una clase de billonarios hipócritas y depravados, dedicados a una acumulación de poder y riqueza total, creando una enorme clase esclavizada, pero sin que sus miembros se den cuenta. 

Creo que es muy posible que por lo menos en la América Latina, quizás con la excepción del Brasil, ese estatus ya sea permanente, o por lo menos, de largo plazo, y que las ultimas elecciones honestas ya están en el pasado, y eso en casi todas partes del mundo, un cáncer social y cívico metatizado.  Obviamente en Colombia, por ejemplo, ha asumido el poder, irónicamente con ayuda masiva sionista, un aspirante a copiar il Duce, el de Italia hace un siglo pero sin su experiencia o patriotismo (pero si con todos sus aspectos malévolos).  Y esos tipos no rinden el poder, acusando a sus oponentes de todos los pecados y las aspiraciones que ellos mismos poseen.  Un perfecto ejemplo es que el que siempre ha defendido a los más corruptos y de ellos ha acumulado su fortuna y su fama denomine su empalme “empalme anticorrupción.  O que acuse al presidente Pero ante el Congreso de “traición a la patria” cuando el mismo señor de la Espriella juró, hace solo tres años, poner los intereses de los Estados Unidos por encima de los de Colombia y el diciembre pasado prometió poner los de Israel por encima de todo. 

El progresismo colombiano creía hace cuatro años que había, “cesado la horrible noche”. 

Estábamos equivocados.

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© Guillermo Calvo Mahé; Manizales, 2026; todos derechos reservados.  Permiso para compartir con atribución.

Guillermo Calvo Mahé es escritor, comentarista, analista político y académico residente en la República de Colombia. Aspira ser poeta y filósofo empírico y a veces se lo cree.  Hasta el 2017 coordinaba los programas de Ciencia Política, Gobierno y Relaciones Internacionales de la Universidad Autónoma de Manizales. En la actualidad, participa en entrevistas radiales y televisadas, foros, seminarios y congresos cívicos y edita y publica la revista virtual, The Inannite Review disponible en Substack.com/.  Tiene títulos académicos en ciencias políticas (del Citadel, la universidad militar de la Carolina del Sur), derecho (de la St. John’s University en la ciudad de Nueva York), estudios jurídicos internacionales (de la facultad posgrado de derecho de la New York University) y estudios posgrado de lingüística y traducción (del Centro de Estudios Latinoamericanos de la Universidad de la Florida).  Sin embargo, también es fascinado por la mitología, la religión, la física, la astronomía y las matemáticas, especialmente en lo relacionado con lo cuántico y la cosmogonía.  Puede ser contactado en guillermo.calvo.mahe@gmail.com y gran parte de su escritura está disponible a través de su blog en https://guillermocalvo.com/.